Circana shared its latest Compass insights report, which shows a strong connection between forecasts made in 2023 and current market numbers. This, the company says, offers industry insiders valuable guidance that can help inform the second half of 2024 and fuel growth for 2025.

In 2023, Circana projected the retail Food & Beverage sector would experience a volume increase of 1.0%; as of the mid-year 2024, the sector has shown a volume growth of 0.8%. With inflation easing across the entire sector in 2024, Circana reported a couple of key insights:

• There is a  bifurcation in F&B purchases. Some consumers are favoring private brands while others are opting to trade up to premium-priced products and super-premium items.
• Consumers increasingly value “just-in-time” convenience. They are making smaller, more frequent trips and favoring quick-prep options from produce, refrigerated, and deli departments.
• The frozen and refrigerated segments have outperformed initial expectations; refrigerated trails only produce as a leading department in volume growth year-to-date 2024.
• The seafood and liquor segments have experienced volume declines (trends spotted by the WholeFoods Magazine team at Newtopia Now suggest the sober curious and plant-based trends are going strong). 

“Following several years of economic volatility, we’re now seeing signs of stabilization across various sectors, including food and beverage," shared Sally Lyons Wyatt, Global Executive Vice President and Chief Advisor at Circana. "While we anticipated greater support from an improving economy, the shift from away-from-home to in-home consumption helped keep our projections on track. Manufacturers will need to strategically assess how to stimulate demand and drive profitable growth, and Circana provides the data-driven insights necessary to inform those decisions."

As for 2025, Circana is projecting the Food & Beverage market will see a small increase of 2.5% to 3.5% in top-line dollar growth and a modest 0-1.0% in volume growth.