It’s Hard to Know What Trump Will Do

“We expect to grow 4% in 2025. We’ve seen growth across all departments. It is not one thing driving it. We’re also seeing good growth in our deli.

“There have been two challenges. One is the COVID disruptions, which have now largely passed. And we’re able to hire better and have better retention. We’re still seeing high levels of staff turnover, but it is not as bad as before. We went a year without a full complement of employees and went without a couple of department managers. But now we have a trained team that knows what they’re doing and are doing it right. We imagine that trend will continue, and that it will get easier to hire, and that we won’t have such an employee deficit.

“We do note that there is a new generation of workers coming into the market, those 18 to 25 years old. They have a very different work ethic, and no sense of loyalty. How they communicate and behave is different, and it is a different ball game working with them. 

“Often, we’ll get a text, Ooops, I’m moving on. We say, What about your last paycheck? But they’ve just wandered off. We’ve seen it so many times, it is a bit of a new normal. It seems a recent generation, perhaps the ones that have played school soccer, where every kid gets a trophy, has changed expectations of how hard they have to work, and of how the system is supposed to work.

“Despite all that, we still have a good time, and serve our customers with our own special magic, which is an engaged staff, dedicated to delighting the customers. 

"Yet, it is really hard to know what having Trump elected is going to do. If we go into a recession and have high inflation, my store will change. We’ve heard scenarios, if we deport all the immigrants, and put tariffs on all the goods, it will rip our economy and workforce. So, the hope is that he is not going to do what he says. But it makes it hard to predict the future. 

“We still see a lot of out of stocks, but it is not as bad as before. Our main distributor appears to be suffering from not enough staff, and not enough qualified to provide high-quality customer service. We’re getting a lot of late orders, with lots of mis-picks. And a chill order delivered last week came in at 50 degrees. That is not doing your job very well!”

Staffing is a Struggle

Southeast Retailer: “I’m not sure if we will match last year [2023], which was a record. We’re doing well so far this year. The deli has really taken off, even though we’ve had to raise prices. Store sales are good too. I feel hopeful about the future. We are still struggling with keeping employees. I’m meeting with a young employee today to explain his end of the bargain. I agree to give you these hours and pay you. You need to show up and communicate if there’s a problem. If you want a job, you can’t just bail on a day and not communicate. He needs a come-to-Jesus meeting with me, which he won’t like. And he can quit if he wants. 

"It is not so widespread a problem though. We hired a girl a few months ago, but she took a factory job because she needed more money. I’m trying to make our pay schedule more competitive, but can’t compete with big companies. People in positions of authority here, or long-term employees, are doing great. I’m teaching one of them how to do QuickBooks, so they won’t be in the lurch if something happens to me. Letting go of that was a big step for me.

“At 73, I don’t have the same stamina for standing on the sales floor. I’ve had a couple of falls. The team doesn’t count on me for that anymore. That’s been a relief. I don’t have to schedule myself after 50 years of running this store. I try to not get too stressed about the things that go wrong, because they’re always going to go wrong. For example, we had a customer slip and fall over her own feet, and we had to get our insurance to handle it. Fortunately, we had a videotape that clearly showed where she fell and how it happened, so we had no liability.

“Why are we successful? We have these [social media] influencers who have been a part of it, especially for young people, but older people are following some people [on social media] too, and hearing about the products we carry from these influencers. It has driven some business to us. We’re 45 years in business under our current name, and five years before that under a different name. We have credibility from being long-term in the market. 

“COVID is also a factor, and how it has made people look at supplements more seriously. Also, we hired a different deli manager who has improved everything in the deli versus the previous manager, who was stressed out about the job. We had hired someone who is so good and moved her into the manager’s position. Through mid-year 2024, we were up almost 5% for the year. Our third quarter was flat from last year, but October is coming in strong.”

Let’s Just Pay People a Decent Wage

Mid-Atlantic Retailer: “We are having a great year. We’re just barely going to miss the $10 million mark. It may be a double-digit increase from last year. I’m seeing high single-digit growth for next year. We got a new POS system in October and checked our sales reports and found we were up 13% over the previous 12-month average. It’s really about dotting I’s and crossing the T’s, like making sure our costs are correct. We’ve raised gross profit margins to 43-plus% versus 38.5% two years ago. That was because we were asleep at the wheel. We thought someone was keeping up with it who wasn’t.

“This is our 30th anniversary and we are debt free. There are several reasons for our success. The first three are location, location, location. We’re in a high-income, high-education area, and are somewhat insulated from competition. I also think now that we have the results of the election, at least half the electorate feels more positive about the economy. And we can pay people well, with a full benefits package, insurance reimbursement, and 401k. 

“We’re an INFRA member, and I read the listserv regularly. It seems the bigger coastal stores and smaller rural stores in the interior of the country are the ones that may be struggling. They are not in the areas that are doing well. That’s the reason we picked this and not another location.

“We are finally driving the car with all cylinders firing properly. Our deli is 18% of sales, at a 69% gross profit margin, before payroll. There is more workforce turnover, especially in the kitchen. It is really hard to staff it. Restaurants say the same thing. It looks like we are going to be making tip income tax free, promulgated by people high up in the restaurant industry. It’s crazy. Let’s just pay people a decent wage. An experienced cook needs to make more per hour than the rest of the world. It is worth it because of their culinary expertise. But ever since the pandemic, they don’t want to be in the kitchen anymore. Overall, people come and go, but our senior staff is very stable.”

There is Increased Awareness of Toxins

Mountain West Retailer: “2024 wrapped up real strong for us with double digit growth. 2025 I think is going to be great. With [Robert F.] Kennedy [Jr.] and all the attention to healthy foods, it is going to be lights out. It’s going to be great for natural foods stores, and for our country’s population, as we get rid of bad ingredients. 

We’re successful, I think, because we always try to improve, to do our best. But also, there is a greatly increased awareness of eating clean foods, and of the dangers of hidden toxins. With so much social media, it is hard to avoid learning about it. Also, I think the evil empire, Big Pharma, revealed too much of their hand. Due to the way they handled COVID, a majority of the population now distrusts the pharmaceutical industry, and I think it’s going to hurt them in the long term.

“In the last two months, we had a Trader Joe’s open right across the street. There is a connecting crosswalk. But it is almost like it was a non-issue. We are totally unchanged. Our growth had doubled year-over-year in the six weeks before they opened, up from a 10% increase to a 20% increase. It could be because we had a horrible winter last winter, so comparisons were easier. We don’t really know. It’s been interesting. We definitely have a net nothing, nothing’s changed. Well, some things have changed. There are some new people in the store, and I’m sure we’ve lost some business from some of our existing customers, but net-net, the new business that we are picking up from new customers is outweighing any loss we might have had from existing customers. It’s only been a couple of months, but I think they’ve [Trader Joe’s] been good for us. 

“We’ve been here 25 years, growing from a very small store and staff to 150 employees now. I’ve been surprised and pleased with the fervent support we’ve had from locals. It’s been great to see people get feisty about it, saying how much they hate Trader Joe’s for having moved in so close to us. We didn’t solicit any of that, just observed it.”

We’re Not as Service Oriented as Pre-pandemic

Midwest Retailer: “It is always so hard to know why we are doing as well as we have been. I’ve been doing this for the better part of my life, and looking back, every year is just so much better than I thought it would be. Even with all the risks and unknowns, we’ve had remarkable stability. I’ve been running the business my folks started since I was in high school. Over decades, we’ll have ups and downs over things we can control, and things we can’t. That gives me confidence looking forward. We’ve had a really strong year, with some reasons I can explain, and some I can’t. There are so many factors.

“As I look forward to 2025, I still see tremendous opportunity in our stores we’re not taking advantage of. Time, personnel, focus. Leadership, where are we weak, where are we strong, what are our opportunities? A typical SWOT [strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats] analysis. My team is hopeful. In the store we had bought just before the pandemic, our assessment was it was dead and done. And due to the pandemic, it took a long time to revive it. But now, we are 17% up over last year, and just starting to do what I believed it could do when we bought it, which is to double its sales. I believe it has about 100% growth to go in the next five years.

“This is exactly what our other store that we acquired did, which is also growing over 15%, and I don’t know how. It is so small! We’ll be doing some renovations and expansion, which we plan to complete in 2026. Our more stable, older stores are bigger and more established, so they are slower growing. The lowest growth among them is 2%, which could be an internal issue. It should be 4%, 5%, or 6%. And I don’t know what is real growth, and what is inflation. It has an impact. Our oldest store, open since the late ‘60s is set to grow at 5% to 6% percent this year. I’ll take that all day long! For stronger [independent natural] operators, going up against bigger chains, those chains aren’t cheaper today. The mass grocers, like Kroger and HyVee, they are not cheaper than we are. When they greatly expanded their natural foods set, we didn’t even notice it.

“With our growth, we are not as service oriented as before the pandemic. Our team has changed outside of our solid core team. We have less people in an aisle today helping customers than traditionally. Natural brands that go to launch in the natural channel, if I don’t have that person [employee] that learns about that new product and tells the customer about it, I change to a store that sells what the customer knows already. Is that who we are now? Is that good or bad? As front-line labor costs go up in our state to $15, our first-time cashiers and stockers, who are making minimum wage, are going to see a 50% increase in compensation. Is that sustainable?”

Out-of-Stocks Are a Challenge

Southern Retailer: “For 2024, we’ve had a lot of out-of-stock challenges from manufacturers. So, we’ve had to use different buying strategies to make it more assured that we have the products on the shelf that customers want to buy. We’re buying 48s instead of threes, and on key items, we’re getting a gross. We’ve jam-packed out our back room. Not every business can afford to do that. That’s a big invoice all at once. I hope with the changes coming down in the world, the things that have been disrupting our supply will get back on track. Remember there for a while, the boats had to take the long way around because of the pirates. And government changes overseas were having an effect. It’s weird to realize problems halfway across the world can affect your supply.

“We always have a slowdown until the big presidential elections are over. And we saw that [in 2024]. Now we have that, we are starting to pick back up again. Even though it’s Christmas, as you know with supplements, there’s not a lot of gift traffic, but they still need their stuff. 

“As far as 2025, with the consumer, I’m hoping it not only stays steady, but actually grows. How long will it take to get out of inflation? Health care is so expensive, but people are being more consistent with taking supplements to stay out of the doctor’s office. I hope we get RFK [Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., President-elect Trump’s Health Secretary nominee] in charge.

“In our state, we have a Senate bill championed by the lieutenant governor, which would get rid of all the THC products. Even all the hemp products with it, try to ban it. I don’t know what kind of battle that will be. It’s going to upset a lot of people. We don’t sell a ton of CBD, but we work with companies on that. I personally use them, so it’s like, Oh, no! Medical marijuana will still be available. I understand where he’s [the lieutenant governor] coming from, with delta 8 and 9, such harsh chemical solvents [used in processing some THC and CBD products]. So, it is questionable if the efficacy is there and if it’s safe. I see legal battles continuing.

“I’m hoping RFK will help turn the tide a little bit. There are other states trying to restrict supplements. too. All the things they’re picking away at. Homeopathics. There’s always something new. That will continue to be a challenge.

“We have no plans to expand to multiple stores again. Our one small store today is all we can handle, basically. We’ve got a great staff that’s been with us a long time, and I see that partnership continuing to grow in 2025. We have no major marketing plans. The things I do already are working. We have our website and have been omnichannel for a while now. We have a blog. We send out emails at the beginning of each month. We have an extra savings coupon. That used to be a physical postcard, but we’ve digitized that since then, to add to the discount they already get on our store brand.

“We have an app so customers can see what the deals are for the month. We pick a product for a much deeper discount, and we pick a couple of categories to save extra on. We’ve started Wellness Wednesday, but there were some people that could only come on Saturday, so then it was Super Saturday. Then we knew the economy was getting worse, we knew if we didn’t offer as much as we could to help them save, so we started a Terrific Tuesday, once a month. You save an extra 10% on top of our store brand discount of 15% to 30%. The main thing that has worked for us all these years is still word of mouth. Customers love to tell others about us!”

It’s Now GLP-1, GLP-1, GLP-1! 

West Coast Retailer: “It’s now GLP-1, GLP-1, GLP-1! A climbing topic. What’s happened is, we’re getting some input from the supplements industry. People taking GLP-1 are losing weight, but that is coming with side effects because they’re not eating enough to maintain proper nutrition. These nutrient deficiencies can lead to other problems, such as sarcopenia. So, it’s a whole other avenue of supporting people with nutritional approaches. Some companies are trying to formulate products that stimulate natural GLP-1 to get the same results as the drug. We hark back to basics, such as Dr. Sears’ Zone Diet, 40-30-30, where you always make sure your meals consist of high protein first, and moderate fat. Eating these foods first activates GLP-1 to help quell appetite.

“Other products that may be helpful are berberine for weight loss and insulin support. Fiber also is important, like Natural Factors PGX. The research on it says it helps GLP-1 stability, so people taking it weren’t as hungry. Other things we’re seeing are the trace minerals zeolite, humic acids, and fulvic acid, a combination of these to support detoxification and cleansing. We’re seeing a push on that. 

“Also, there’s sports nutrition and hydration products we’re seeing a lot of. People are attracted to the idea of hydration because it seems to fit their understanding of what is natural and logical. People seem to like the idea.

“We’re seeing increased interest in weightlifting to maintain body composition, and essential amino acids and BCAAs have stayed strong. We’re also seeing creatine, with some research on cognitive benefits published in ISSN [the International Society of Sports Nutrition]. And male testosterone will stay strong, and anything having to do with anxiety, stress, or mood, we are knocking it out of the park. NMN and NAD are huge for us. A lot of our customers are enjoying the benefits.

“The collagen market is never going away. When collagen recently came back on the market, with bone broth soup, it was a throwback to the MLO products from the ‘70s. Jack LaLanne inspired that product when a friend of his who was a pharmacy major, saw protein powder in the back of LaLanne’s car and asked him what it was. LaLanne said he was taking protein powder to build muscle, so the friend started taking it and found the same benefit, and started bottling it up as MLO.

“Mushrooms are here to stay too, with more legitimate mushroom companies putting out more and better science; more human studies versus. animal studies where the dosages are off. 

“Another trend we’re seeing is in new delivery systems, like liposomal, turning water-soluble lecithin into a fat-soluble compound for better absorbability. It’s turning up in multivitamins now, and in vitamin C. I think you’ll see a lot more of this now.”

Remarkable Independent Strength!

In the depths of the pandemic, in late 2020 and early 2021, I predicted an entirely new swath of the population would embrace natural organic products, having never considered them or even ever entered a natural foods store. The reason was conventional supermarkets, mass retailers, and club stores were making natural and organic choices more visible and tying these products in with proactive guidance on better nutrition.

Surveys at the time revealed that, in response to the pandemic’s severe health effects, some 80% of conventional grocers had newly instituted wellness initiatives for their customers and employees, including physical and emotional wellbeing. Just the year before the pandemic, the same surveys reported fewer than half of these grocers had adopted any wellness initiatives at all.

What consumers were telling pollsters was the most important factor in their and their families’ lives, was maintaining resilience. Closely tied to immunity, resilience encompassed physical and emotional well-being. Of course, existing natural foods shoppers continued to shop in their local independent stores, driving business up significantly. And, while it has taken a few years to come true, 2024 demonstrates that the wave of pandemic-driven consumers trying natural and organic products for the first time has finally reached the shores of independent natural retailers around the country.

Just as in the 1980s, when conventional grocers started carrying yogurt and soy milk for the first time, exposing a whole new segment of the population outside of natural foods stores to natural products, this 21^st Century infusion of new households embracing natural products for the first time is lifting all independent boats and driving sales up from mid-single digits to low double digits year-over-year. 

After banking a strong 2024, independents across the country have broad optimism about 2025. And those who have held true to their mission of improving the health of their communities are reaping their just rewards. It couldn’t happen to a nicer group of friends.