You could say 2024 was the year natural organic products took first place in the food retailing universe, outpacing conventional groceries by nearly two percentage points: up 6.89% vs. 4.95%; and adding a record $7.137 billion in natural sales to reach $110.75 billion across the eight U.S. food retailing channels we track annually at Retail Insights. Who’s first and who’s last? Let’s find out.
Supernaturals—No. 1
Supernaturals, including Whole Foods, Sprouts, Fresh Thyme, and others, remain unchallenged—so far—at the pinnacle of natural organic retailing, growing 6.3% and adding $1.925 billion in sales to reach $32.46 billion and a 29.31% natural market share (please see table on the previous page for the eight-channel detail.)
We count Whole Foods at 522 U.S. stores in 2024, up seven units from last year, and estimate 5.59% growth to $22.01 billion, with 15% of sales coming from its Amazon Prime store orders. Sprouts was the most prolific store-builder in the segment in 2024, adding 29 units to total 431, and $7.855 billion in sales. We believe Fresh Thyme and New Seasons both exceeded $750 million in sales on estimated 4% to 5% growth. Southeast retailer, Earthfare, closed a couple of stores, down to 16 units. Altogether, the supernatural channel added 46 stores to total 1,242, for 3.85% unit growth.
Compact Grocers—No. 2
In 2012, we coined the term ‘compact grocer’ to mean food stores of 20,000 square feet or less, a segment we believed would grow rapidly due to the relative ease of finding suitable real estate. Fitting into this category are fast-growing Aldi, with 2,362 stores; and Trader Joe’s, which added 44 stores this year to reach 608 units. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, with 169 units, also fits the model, with stores typically in the 15,000-square-foot range. Overall, compact grocers added the most new units of all eight retail channels, adding 54 stores to total 3,173 in 2024.
Along with their aggressive unit growth, compact grocers also added the most natural sales—besting the supernaturals—up 10.95% and $2.33 billion to total $23.6 billion, and gaining a 2nd-place, 21.34% market share.
Leading the segment was Trader Joe’s, with an estimated $18.1 billion in sales, up 11.2% and $1.82 billion. Aldi followed, adding $393.6 million in natural organic sales, also up 11%, bringing its natural total to an estimated $3.96 billion. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage grew a robust 6.8%, adding $79.8 million to reach $1.24 billion in sales.
Conventional Supermarkets—No. 3
Despite the upheaval from the failed Kroger-Albertsons merger, the conventional grocery channel participated in natural industry growth, gaining 3.68% and adding $737.7 million in natural organic sales to reach $20.75 billion and an 18.74% natural market share.
We are carrying 27,530 conventional supermarkets this year, down 24 units from last year. Stores in other channels; compact grocers, club stores, mass merchants, supernaturals, and some coops and independent natural retailers, help make up the 45,000-plus stores of the U.S. food retailing universe we track each year.
Coops and Independent Natural Retailers—No. 4
In WholeFoods Magazine’s (no relation to the retail stores) Annual Retailer Survey, which you can read on page 20 of this issue, editors ask independent natural products retailers to report their results through June 30 each year. While survey respondents told us they had a good year, with average sales up in the low to mid-single digits, interviews the magazine conducted later, in December of 2024, revealed a near-universal strengthening in sales during the second half of the year. Independents consistently told us of low to mid-double-digit year-over-year sales growth, as consumers increased their purchases and shopping frequency.
Asked why retailers thought their sales were increasing so robustly, most responded they had done nothing different or exceptional, only that they had stayed the course, stayed in-stock, and maintained high levels of personalized service. Some suggested the enduring effects of the pandemic, firming the resolve of people to take better care of themselves and their families, and putting those intentions into practice.
The results are evident in our coops and independent’s 5.92% sales increase, up $705.8 million, to reach $12.62 billion and an 11.4% natural market share. This, despite losing 34 stores this year, which is a 0.6% decrease in the number of units, a slower pace of store closures than in recent years. This may reflect the brightening outlook for independents as natural remedies continue to gain traction in society and the culture.
Club Stores—No. 5
Club stores such as Costco, BJ’s Warehouse, and Sam’s Club were not idle in 2024, adding 25 units, most of which were the 17 club stores Costco opened, followed by nine openings for BJ’s. Sam’s Club closed one store. The sector added $1.74 billion in natural organic product sales, to reach $9.48 billion, a 22.5% increase, by far the largest percentage of any of the eight retail channels we track, and good for an 8.57% natural market share, up over a percentage point from last year’s 7.47% market share.
Costco was responsible for the lion’s share of growth, adding $1.45 billion in natural sales, to reach our estimate of $8.02 billion. If you’ve visited Costco recently, you’ll realize the stunning number of fresh perishables SKUs, from meat and poultry to organic produce, and refrigerated and frozen packaged foods. We estimate Costco allocates the equivalent of 10,000 square feet to its natural organic assortment, about 7% of its average 144,000-square-foot warehouses.
Mass Merchandisers—No. 6
Mass merchants Walmart and Target added $250.2 million in natural sales, a 3.77% increase, securing the sector a 6.21% natural market share. The bulk of the increase, $195.4 million, came from Walmart Supercenters, which offer the largest assortment of groceries of any of its formats, including natural and organic products.
Over half, 59.8%, of Walmart’s U.S. sales come from groceries, a far larger percentage than the estimated 19.6% Target generates from its food selection. This is why we believe that growth for natural products in the mass merchant sector will continue to come from Walmart’s Supercenters, and not from its smaller Neighborhood or discount formats, nor from Target’s expanded food assortments in its SuperTarget format.
Pharmacy Chains and Independent Pharmacies—No. 7
Stability is not a word we would use to describe the pharmacy sector in 2024. Walgreens, one of the two largest chains, closed an estimated 1,200 of its stores, ending the year with 8,476 units. Rite Aid, a far smaller chain, shuttered 646 units, a third of its count, to end the year with 1,259 stores. CVS, the other large chain, ended the year with 9,144 stores after closing 270 units. Altogether, the sector had 2,349 closings, a 4.13% decrease in units.
It follows that sales also decreased, and we estimate the channel shed $355.2 million in natural sales, a 10.15% decline, to $3.144 billion, and a 2.84% natural market share, about a half-point lower than last year’s 3.38% share.
Vitamin Chains—No. 8
For those of you who follow our annual Retail Universe, it is no surprise to see vitamin chains bringing up the rear in both natural sales and market share. The segment ended the year with 3,017 stores, a decrease of 72 units, made up of 69 GNC corporate and franchise closings and three Vitamin Shoppe stores.
We estimate the channel lost $200.9 million in sales, bringing its total to $1.75 billion, and a dismal 1.59% natural market share. We believe both chains benefited from growth in their online orders, which we estimate at 20% of sales.
Natural vs. Conventional Food Sales
As you can see from the table on page 32, natural organic sales in 2024 reached a record $110.75 billion, which is 12.91% of the total $1.073 trillion we are carrying for the U.S. food retailing industry through all eight channels.
The natural organic sector broke several other records this year, including the 12.91% natural market share, and the $7.13 billion increase in natural organic product sales. Average annual natural sales per gross-lease-area square foot reached $808.31. Keep in mind, this is across the entire 137,015,363 total natural square feet we estimate exists in U.S. food stores, also a record number of natural square feet. Finally, the average 1,329 square feet per store allocated to natural products generate an astonishing $1.074 million in natural sales each year.
For those of you who love numbers, natural square footage of total U.S. food retail stores is 5.14% of the 2.667 billion square feet we maintain in our database. This continues to make an investment in natural organic products one of the best a retailer can make: 250% more productive than the average food-store square footage. WF
