As WholeFoods Magazine has reported, the White House announced an executive order from President Donald J. Trump that involves reciprocal tariffs on goods from around the world, plus a 10% baseline tariff on U.S. imports from virtually all countries, and the levels are higher for some countries. That order is currently on a 90-day pause, except for China where Trump announced on April 9 that he is raising the tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% immediately.
The impacts this will have on retail and U.S. consumer spending are unknown, but Circana reports that several factors beyond tariffs are already disrupting normal consumer behavior. Circana points to the continued pressure of elevated prices, rising debt, concern among the Hispanic population, extreme weather, and natural disasters as factors disrupting normal spending patterns.
“Dynamic shifts in consumption are already occurring across consumer groups and retail segments,” said Marshal Cohen, Chief Retail Industry Advisor for Circana. “The consumer is in a state of confusion and trying to decipher how to prioritize their purchases in an environment of significant change.”
Impacts on consumer spending since 2020
Major weather events or natural disasters are impacting regional markets. Circana reports that in the first week of 2025, Southern California wildfires and Winter Storm Blair triggered spending disruptions that deepened discretionary spending declines from a 1% 2024 average to 4% for that week. In the Gulf Coast, Winter Storm Enzo resulted in double-digit discretionary dollar sales declines in that region. The combination of unexpected storms and generally colder temperatures in the U.S. in January 2025 provided a boost for many cold-weather categories that consumers needed in the moment, Circana added.
Some spending shifts are specific to consumer groups, Circana reported, and an impact is being seen among Hispanic consumers. Discretionary purchasing continues to fall at a faster pace than non-Hispanic purchasing, the company reported; this is the first time in two years that Hispanic consumer demand under-performed that of non-Hispanic consumers.
“Unexpected events create unexpected needs and put added pressure on consumers,” said Cohen. “As more uncertainty and new dynamics enter the picture, the consumer has made it clear that they will not continue to spend in their usual way.”
